The Impact of Retention Polders, Dyke-Shifts and Reservoirs on Discharge in the Elbe River - Hydrological Modelling Study in the Framework of the Action Plan for the Flood Protection in the Elbe River Basin of the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe River (ICPER/IKSE/MKOL)

A hydrological model simulation study has been carried out in the Elbe basin using detailed data obtained from the relevant Czech and German institutes. The LISFLOOD model has been calibrated for the Elbe river basin using these data. Using this calibrated model setup, two studies have been carried out in the framework of the Action Plan for Flood Protection of the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe River (ICPER/IKSE/MKOL). The 2002 flood without dyke-breaks: The first part of the simulation study was a simulation of the 2002 summer flood without dyke-breaks. It has been estimated here that without dyke-breaks, the discharge in the lower part of the Elbe river would have been 2.6 ¿ 9.1 % higher (117-384 m3/s). Waterlevels would have between 18 and 54 cm higher. Reservoir Study: The planned scenario for Saale reservoir steering investigated here does not have any significant influence on the discharge of the Elbe. The influence of changing the flood storage in the Bleiloch and Hohenwarte reservoirs in winter from 40 to 55 Mm3 and in summer from 25 to 35 Mm3 on river discharge has been assessed. The scenario results have shown that this planned scenario for reservoir steering in the Saale cascade does not have a significant influence on the discharge of the river Elbe, for the investigated flood events in 1994, 2002 und 2003 at gauging station Calbe-Griezehne (lower Saale). Also the influence on the discharge in the river Elbe is marginal: changes in peak discharge downstream the Saale-confluence are in the order of 0.2% (difference in discharge 4-8 m3/s). Furthermore, the influence of the Vltava reservoir cascade was investigated using two datasets provided by the Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute (CHMI): one dataset with the actual situation and steering of the Vltava cascade, and a scenario without the Vltava cascade. For floods with a magnitude such as in August 2002, the difference between the scenario with and without the Vltava cascade is between 1.6 and 3.7% (84-171 m3/s) in the German part of the Elbe river. Polder and Dyke-shift Study: The potential effects of 5 polders and 20 dyke-shifts on discharge in the river Elbe have been estimated. The main outcomes are the following: The 20 planned dyke-shifts reduce the peak discharge of the 2002 summer flood with 1.3-4.6% (58-202 m3/s). Waterlevels would have been 10-31cm lower. For the 2006 flood the results are similar in character, but lower in magnitude. The measures reduce the peak discharge of the 2006 spring flood with 0.4-1.3% (10-48 m3/s). Waterlevels would have been 3-10cm lower. The 5 planned polders and 20 planned dyke-shifts simulated here, reduce the peak discharge of the 2002 summer flood with 3.9-10.8% (178-469 m3/s). Waterlevels would have been 23-74cm lower. For the 2006 flood, the results are again lower: the measures reduce the peak discharge of the 2006 spring flood with 1.2-3.3% (31-121 m3/s). Waterlevels would have been 8-21cm lower.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Report on the biogeochemical model of the North-Western European Shelf

The report presents the background of the newly developed marine model covering the North and Celtic Sea. The 3d-model includes all relevant hydrodynamical drivers (tides, currents, water temperature and salinity) and a biogeochemical model of the lower trophic foodweb including essential dissolved nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, silicate, carbon and oxygen) and several phytoplankton groups. The moel results are mainly assessed for the indicators, used for the assessment of descriptor 5 ("eutrophication") within the EU Marine Strategy Framwork Directive (MSFD). The coupled model was used to simulate the present state (covering the period 2005 - 2012) and its results are compared and validated, using a variety of different datasets of observations.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

The European Flood Alert System - Part I: Concept and Development

Abstract This paper presents the development of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), which aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing local water authorities with medium-range and probabilistic flood forecasting information 3 to 10 days in advance. The EFAS research project started in 2003 with the development of a prototype at the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), in close collaboration with the national hydrological and meteorological services. The prototype covers the whole of Europe on a 5 km grid. In parallel, different high-resolution data sets have been collected for the Elbe and Danube river basins, allowing the potential of the system under optimum conditions and on a higher resolution to be assessed. Flood warning lead-times of 3-10 days are achieved through the incorporation of medium-range weather forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), comprising a full set of 51 probabilistic forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provided by ECMWF. The ensemble of different hydrographs is analysed and combined to produce early flood warning information, which is disseminated to the hydrological services that have agreed to participate in the development of the system. In Part I of this paper, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system is presented. The rational of the project, the system¿s set-up, its underlying components, basic principles and products are described. In Part II, results of a detailed statistical analysis of the performance of the system are shown, with regard to both probabilistic and deterministic forecasts.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

The European Flood Alert System - Part 1: Concept and Development

This paper presents the development of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), which aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing local water authorities with medium-range and probabilistic flood forecasting information 3 to 10 days in advance. The EFAS research project started in 2003 with the development of a prototype at the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), in close collaboration with the national hydrological and meteorological services. The prototype covers the whole of Europe on a 5 km grid. In parallel, different high-resolution data sets have been collected for the Elbe and Danube river basins, allowing the potential of the system under optimum conditions and on a higher resolution, to be assessed. Flood warning lead-times of 3-10 days are achieved through the incorporation of medium-range weather forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), comprising a full set of 51 probabilistic forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provided by ECMWF. The ensemble of different hydrographs is analysed and combined to produce early flood warning information, which is disseminated to the hydrological services that have agreed to participate in the development of the system. In Part I of this paper, the scientific approach adopted in development of the system is presented. The rational of the project, the system¿s set-up, its underlying components, basic principles, and products, are described. In Part II, results of a detailed statistical analysis of the performance of the system are shown, with regard to both probabilistic and deterministic forecastsJRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

The water-energy nexus and the implications for the flexibility of the Greek power system

The operation of the power systems is constrained by the availability of water resources, which are necessary for cooling thermal power plants and determine the generation of hydro reservoirs and run-of-river power plants. The interactions between the water and power systems have impacts on the quantity and quality of the water resources, thus affecting human uses and the environment. The European power system has witnessed in the past several examples of the consequences of reduced availability of water, which range from monetary losses, to demand restrictions, or increased wear and tear of the power plants. The importance of these impacts, and the expectation that climate change will produce similar episodes in the future more often, raises several research questions relevant for policy making. Some of these questions may be addressed by WATERFLEX, an exploratory research project carried out by units C7 (Knowledge for the Energy Union) and D2 (Water and Marine Resources) of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC). The main goal of WATERFLEX is to assess the potential of hydropower as a source of flexibility to the European power system, as well as analysing the Water-Energy nexus against the background of the EU initiatives towards a low-carbon energy system. The method proposed in the WATERFLEX project for better representing and analysing the complex interdependencies between the power and water sectors consists of combining two of the modelling tools available at the JRC, the LISFLOOD hydrological model [1] and the Dispa-SET unit commitment and dispatch model [2], with a medium-term hydrothermal coordination model. In order to test and validate the proposed approach described above, this document describes a case study carried out to analyse the implications of different hydrologic scenarios for the flexibility of the Greek power system.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

The water-power nexus of the Iberian Peninsula power system: WATERFLEX project

Water availability influences power generation and its costs. Policies aimed at keeping the water stress index of thermal power plants within acceptable limits are needed. This report provides a model-based analysis of the water-power nexus in the Iberian Peninsula.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Impact of a changing climate, land use, and water usage on water resources in the Danube river basin

Impact of a changing climate, land use, and water usage on water resources in the Danube river basinJRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Climate change and Europe’s water resources

In addition to the already existing pressure on our freshwater resources, climate change may further decrease water availability. In this study, projections of future water resources, due to climate change, land use change and changes in water consumption have been assessed using JRC’s LISFLOOD water resources model. The results presented are based on 11 climate models which project current and future climate under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenario. RCP4.5 may be viewed as a moderate-emissions-mitigation-policy scenario and RCP8.5 as a high-end emissions scenario. A 30-year window around the year that global warming reaches 1.5oC, 2oC and 3oC above preindustrial temperature has been analysed and compared to the 1981-2010 control climate window (baseline). The 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios are explicitly considered in the Paris Agreement, while a 3°C global warming is a scenario that could be expected by the end of the 21st century if adequate mitigation strategies are not taken. First, we performed future projections without socio-economic developments to show the effect of climate change only. Next, an integrated assessment is performed including future changes in land use, water demand and population. This allows us to disentangle the effects of climate and socio-economic changes. In general, the climate projections reveal a typically North-South pattern across Europe for water availability. Overall, Southern European countries are projected to face decreasing water availability, particularly Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy and Turkey. Central and Northern European countries show an increasing annual water availability.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Assessing the effects of water saving measures on Europe's water resources: BLUE2 project - Freshwater quantity

Using JRC's LISFLOOD water resources model, the effect of four policy measures on Europe's water resources were investigated under current and future climate. The measures evaluated were increasing irrigation efficiency, urban water use efficiency, cooling water usage for energy production, and urban waste-water re-use for irrigation. The measures were evaluated following their current planned implementation (BAU) under the Water Framework Directive. Furthermore, an Maximum Feasible Technology scenario was investigated for all 4 measures. Increasing irrigation efficiency shows to have the largest effect on improving water resources, under current climate. Under future climate change however, the projected decreases in water availability in especially the Mediterranean are larger than the increases obtained with improving irrigation efficiency. This may indicate that an increased level of ambition in water efficiency measures is required to reduce the impact of climate change on water resources.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Summary Report of the 1st Workshop on the use of Ensemble Prediction System in Flood Forecasting (Ispra, 21-22 November 2005)

The first workshop on the use of EPS in flood forecasting was organised by the Joint Research Centre together with researchers from King's College in London (UK) and the Lancaster University (UK). The workshop was organized to address two main concerns of EFAS regarding flood forecasting based on EPS: 1. How to extract meaningful information from the meteorological EPS for medium-range flood forecasting? 2. How to communicate the uncertainty in flood forecasting to end-users? The specific objectives of the workshop were to explore together with flood forecasting experts from the Member States: 3. The usefulness of EPS information implemented in EFAS for operational flood forecasting and decision making, and the perception of uncertainty in flood forecasting. The workshop's concept was to have a small group of flood forecasters from different river basins working through a number of case-studies, each one representing a potential flood situation as forecasted by EFAS. On the first day, the participants worked in groups on each case-study. The second day was targeted mostly to plenary discussions on the use of EPS in flood forecasting.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard